* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/04/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 132 126 121 114 107 102 94 87 81 75 68 60 V (KT) LAND 135 132 126 121 114 107 102 94 87 81 75 68 60 V (KT) LGE mod 135 131 123 114 106 93 83 77 71 65 58 52 46 V (KT) G09R 36 41 50 48 50 64 63 57 61 55 53 57 56 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 15 15 9 6 8 3 3 4 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 5 3 7 4 6 6 8 10 9 10 8 SHEAR DIR 211 220 217 218 211 212 200 219 237 150 191 73 353 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.5 26.6 26.5 25.7 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 151 149 146 143 141 132 131 122 120 121 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -50.5 -50.7 -49.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.4 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 74 76 78 75 75 78 72 69 71 64 61 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 29 32 34 35 40 43 42 42 41 40 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 48 53 59 67 67 73 88 95 101 104 110 106 101 200 MB DIV 50 54 82 77 107 73 55 45 65 29 29 9 -5 LAND (KM) 1128 1176 1234 1323 1430 1588 1805 2036 2252 2032 1689 1371 1059 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.7 116.4 118.1 119.7 122.6 126.0 129.3 132.6 135.9 139.1 142.1 145.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 17 16 15 16 17 16 16 16 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -9. -12. -21. -31. -40. -49. -57. -64. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -8. -5. -1. 3. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 13. 18. 19. 19. 16. 16. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -14. -21. -28. -33. -41. -48. -54. -60. -67. -75.