* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/05/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 136 129 122 114 106 99 88 80 74 69 63 57 V (KT) LAND 140 136 129 122 114 106 99 88 80 74 69 63 57 V (KT) LGE mod 140 133 124 115 106 93 84 76 71 65 58 51 45 V (KT) G01R 48 43 48 48 46 54 59 57 57 55 58 58 49 SHEAR (KT) 3 12 14 15 12 10 12 6 16 2 1 10 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 5 0 2 2 4 8 1 14 15 3 2 SHEAR DIR 248 229 211 211 216 240 192 162 169 290 47 46 81 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.5 26.7 26.4 25.8 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 145 142 141 132 130 123 116 117 118 119 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.5 -50.9 -50.5 -51.5 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 76 75 75 69 64 62 56 59 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 35 36 36 37 41 44 42 41 40 39 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR 60 74 86 99 97 102 121 121 129 110 105 88 78 200 MB DIV 80 56 48 46 79 86 71 -22 13 11 -4 14 58 LAND (KM) 1308 1421 1500 1598 1740 1968 2177 2160 1844 1533 1275 1013 774 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 120.2 121.7 123.4 125.3 128.5 131.6 134.6 137.5 140.4 142.8 145.2 147.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 18 16 16 14 16 13 13 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -27. -39. -50. -60. -69. -77. -83. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -4. -2. 2. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 11. 16. 14. 13. 12. 11. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -18. -26. -34. -41. -52. -60. -66. -71. -77. -83.