* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/05/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 135 128 122 115 103 94 84 76 71 64 57 50 V (KT) LAND 140 135 128 122 115 103 94 84 76 71 64 57 50 V (KT) LGE mod 140 134 125 116 109 97 87 80 74 68 60 53 47 V (KT) G04R 57 54 62 59 59 65 71 62 58 58 53 55 54 SHEAR (KT) 7 12 14 11 12 18 9 8 7 6 5 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 5 0 2 2 0 3 9 7 8 6 2 SHEAR DIR 196 218 211 203 187 232 152 180 167 210 218 81 70 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 26.8 26.2 25.8 25.3 25.1 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 147 145 143 134 127 123 117 115 116 118 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -50.2 -50.7 -49.9 -50.6 -50.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 74 74 73 71 67 65 60 59 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 39 39 41 42 43 45 46 44 42 42 41 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 63 80 94 117 123 132 142 134 140 125 121 105 82 200 MB DIV 64 43 46 86 126 74 26 -9 39 -15 -15 -4 20 LAND (KM) 1246 1315 1403 1532 1660 1915 2059 2256 1962 1675 1409 1149 900 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 14.8 14.8 15.0 16.0 16.6 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.6 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.2 118.7 120.5 122.4 124.1 127.4 130.4 133.3 136.3 139.0 141.5 143.9 146.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 18 17 16 15 16 14 14 12 12 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -26. -38. -50. -59. -69. -76. -82. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -8. -5. -1. 2. 4. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -18. -25. -37. -46. -56. -64. -69. -76. -83. -90.