* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/05/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 136 129 122 115 104 95 88 78 71 67 63 53 V (KT) LAND 140 136 129 122 115 104 95 88 78 71 67 63 53 V (KT) LGE mod 140 135 126 116 108 93 82 74 68 61 55 48 42 V (KT) G05R 45 39 45 45 44 51 59 56 58 56 50 54 52 SHEAR (KT) 7 11 15 15 13 9 11 8 7 3 1 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 -1 0 5 0 3 14 9 13 5 8 SHEAR DIR 138 237 230 217 234 208 180 180 166 229 332 40 50 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.5 26.6 26.4 25.6 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 147 142 142 132 130 121 116 118 120 122 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -50.4 -51.0 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 76 75 73 67 65 61 58 53 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 31 34 36 36 39 40 41 39 38 37 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 55 69 72 78 88 99 108 108 107 102 100 90 64 200 MB DIV 68 59 59 56 80 62 29 -3 26 7 48 -8 20 LAND (KM) 1215 1451 1537 1593 1700 1917 2146 2160 1827 1475 1148 895 629 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 14.2 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.4 17.8 18.0 18.2 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 120.4 121.6 123.0 124.8 127.9 131.4 134.6 137.6 140.9 144.0 146.4 148.8 STM SPEED (KT) 25 18 13 16 16 17 16 15 15 16 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -27. -39. -50. -60. -69. -76. -82. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -5. -1. 2. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 11. 13. 15. 13. 11. 10. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -17. -25. -36. -45. -52. -62. -69. -73. -77. -87.