* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/05/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 135 127 119 111 95 84 76 69 66 62 53 45 V (KT) LAND 140 135 127 119 111 95 84 76 69 66 62 53 45 V (KT) LGE mod 140 134 124 113 104 89 78 70 65 59 53 46 40 V (KT) G06R 48 47 49 59 55 58 58 56 62 58 58 52 49 SHEAR (KT) 7 16 18 17 18 14 10 6 9 3 5 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 6 7 7 5 3 5 15 13 16 14 9 SHEAR DIR 232 254 244 217 196 240 260 221 158 226 192 281 84 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.6 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 146 144 142 132 129 123 117 118 119 121 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -50.5 -51.3 -50.2 -50.9 -49.9 -50.8 -50.3 -51.3 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 73 74 73 71 62 58 56 55 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 37 39 41 43 42 43 42 41 42 42 39 37 850 MB ENV VOR 76 93 100 112 117 119 134 144 139 128 113 107 83 200 MB DIV 111 88 51 87 99 37 35 34 -10 -8 21 -4 24 LAND (KM) 1323 1453 1517 1617 1691 1940 2107 2158 1834 1504 1229 976 731 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.7 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.2 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 119.8 121.3 123.0 124.5 128.0 131.0 134.6 137.6 140.7 143.3 145.7 147.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 17 15 16 16 15 14 13 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -11. -15. -26. -38. -50. -59. -69. -76. -82. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -13. -8. -4. 0. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 9. 9. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -13. -21. -29. -45. -56. -64. -71. -74. -78. -87. -95.