* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/05/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 136 129 122 115 102 95 85 79 73 66 59 50 V (KT) LAND 140 136 129 122 115 102 95 85 79 73 66 59 50 V (KT) LGE mod 140 134 126 116 108 95 85 79 74 68 60 52 47 V (KT) G07R 51 53 55 54 60 63 62 64 56 56 54 51 44 SHEAR (KT) 8 9 13 13 15 17 6 7 8 1 5 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 7 4 2 4 2 3 14 13 12 0 0 SHEAR DIR 166 216 242 232 218 232 178 183 182 208 181 86 112 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.3 25.5 25.2 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 147 143 144 136 131 127 119 115 117 118 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.5 -50.8 -49.9 -50.4 -49.8 -51.0 -50.2 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 77 76 78 74 74 74 71 65 64 65 65 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 40 42 43 43 45 46 44 43 42 41 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR 58 80 97 113 124 133 146 137 126 117 113 103 88 200 MB DIV 77 62 39 74 104 59 31 11 55 33 32 4 8 LAND (KM) 1267 1399 1482 1593 1722 1980 2159 2245 1964 1690 1429 1186 933 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.2 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.3 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 117.9 119.6 121.3 123.0 124.8 128.2 131.0 133.9 136.5 139.0 141.4 143.6 145.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 16 16 13 15 11 13 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -26. -38. -49. -58. -67. -74. -81. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -8. -5. -1. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -18. -25. -38. -45. -55. -61. -67. -74. -81. -90.