* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/05/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 135 127 119 110 100 92 88 79 74 70 66 58 V (KT) LAND 140 135 127 119 110 100 92 88 79 74 70 66 58 V (KT) LGE mod 140 134 125 115 106 93 84 78 73 67 60 54 48 V (KT) G09R 42 37 35 38 38 47 46 59 53 59 55 50 51 SHEAR (KT) 7 11 17 17 14 7 4 5 12 6 11 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 -1 -3 -1 0 -3 0 0 11 5 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 205 206 220 212 213 213 204 122 183 87 42 59 71 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.4 26.2 25.3 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 143 140 137 130 128 118 117 118 120 120 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.5 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 74 73 71 64 60 56 56 54 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 29 30 32 32 35 36 37 37 37 36 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 63 81 88 92 95 114 125 125 116 108 96 81 53 200 MB DIV 66 55 49 34 37 5 15 -1 59 -17 5 19 23 LAND (KM) 1221 1337 1500 1614 1732 1988 2266 1976 1646 1301 1002 748 537 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.2 18.6 18.9 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 118.3 120.3 122.4 124.0 125.8 129.5 133.1 136.3 139.3 142.5 145.3 147.7 149.7 STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 18 17 17 19 16 16 15 14 12 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -17. -29. -42. -53. -63. -72. -79. -84. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -6. -2. 1. 4. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 7. 9. 12. 12. 11. 10. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -13. -21. -30. -40. -48. -52. -61. -66. -70. -74. -82.