* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/09/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 51 47 42 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 51 47 42 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 53 51 49 44 38 30 24 19 16 15 15 V (KT) G08R 49 45 44 40 40 47 40 46 42 48 48 50 47 SHEAR (KT) 5 2 8 12 14 24 26 34 26 18 3 12 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 2 0 0 -4 -4 -2 -8 -5 -4 -9 -1 SHEAR DIR 202 103 94 79 63 47 48 51 42 70 350 197 195 SST (C) 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.0 24.2 24.4 24.1 24.1 23.9 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 107 107 107 106 104 105 107 104 103 102 103 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.8 -53.9 -54.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 51 48 46 41 39 37 38 40 39 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 34 32 30 29 30 28 28 29 28 29 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 112 109 100 87 77 73 37 25 16 9 20 16 21 200 MB DIV 40 17 -21 -28 -7 47 54 33 17 4 25 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1757 1684 1580 1490 1430 1363 1394 1454 1475 1477 1392 1386 1352 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.1 22.0 23.7 25.9 28.3 30.1 31.5 32.1 32.9 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 138.0 138.7 139.7 140.6 141.3 142.4 143.1 144.1 145.5 147.2 149.8 151.8 154.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 11 9 14 12 10 12 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):313/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -9. -12. -12. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -14. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -13. -21. -33. -46. -56. -65. -66. -65. -64.