* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HILDA EP101997 08/15/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 28 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 28 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 27 27 28 28 22 21 20 19 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 9 11 13 21 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 5 4 8 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 151 59 70 60 45 75 86 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.5 25.3 25.4 25.6 25.0 24.6 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 119 117 119 120 114 109 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 57 54 47 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 12 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 12 9 -2 -15 -36 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 25 20 12 6 -10 -21 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1956 2037 2116 2166 2024 1778 1540 1277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.6 132.8 134.2 135.5 137.8 140.1 142.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 12 12 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -0. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -4. -11. -18. -20. -24. -26. -28.