* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HILDA EP101997 08/15/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 29 28 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 29 28 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 22 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 30 27 27 28 27 25 22 21 21 18 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 5 11 8 4 13 17 22 26 33 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 6 7 3 2 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 147 129 129 89 84 82 108 106 107 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.2 25.2 25.2 24.6 24.5 24.8 25.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 124 120 116 116 115 109 108 112 118 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 59 56 49 43 39 34 29 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 12 9 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 -7 -23 -33 -42 -62 -58 -56 -50 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 44 30 19 21 -6 -13 -33 -18 -37 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1935 1995 2044 2080 2155 1957 1737 1504 1321 1054 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.8 21.5 22.6 22.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.6 130.6 131.6 132.6 133.9 136.1 138.2 140.5 142.5 145.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 13 13 11 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -9. -17. -26. -33. -35. -36.