* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/16/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 39 28 26 25 24 24 25 24 22 23 18 17 16 SHEAR (KT) 21 21 20 18 23 39 27 22 23 20 17 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 0 -6 2 6 8 6 3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 145 150 147 137 132 129 87 43 40 52 100 103 39 SST (C) 18.3 17.7 17.1 16.1 15.0 13.3 13.5 14.3 15.1 15.7 10.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 61 60 61 62 62 66 65 65 64 60 59 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -55.1 -56.0 -56.5 -56.0 -56.4 -56.1 -55.2 -54.9 -54.2 -52.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 48 50 51 54 55 58 55 56 59 58 56 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 17 15 13 12 14 16 13 13 11 7 2 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -9 0 11 3 -17 -1 51 96 108 81 55 40 200 MB DIV -7 -24 12 -2 0 5 14 17 -1 4 10 17 40 LAND (KM) 1562 1492 1420 1300 1155 822 681 803 413 140 64 -83 -590 LAT (DEG N) 41.7 42.4 43.1 44.2 45.5 48.3 51.2 52.5 55.0 57.3 58.1 59.1 62.2 LONG(DEG W) 162.0 162.9 163.3 163.4 163.2 160.1 153.0 146.1 140.9 138.9 138.9 136.9 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 12 13 26 23 21 19 7 6 14 27 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):338/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -19. -22. -26. -30. -32. -34. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 6. -2. -12. -23. -30. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 29. 40. 48. 55. 59. 61. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -8. -7. -11. -11. -14. -18. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -11. -18. -22. -32. -46. -54. -64. -70. -79.