* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/16/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 22 21 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 22 21 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 27 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 36 30 27 25 26 28 30 29 33 30 28 23 20 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 14 14 18 26 22 17 2 17 23 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -1 10 6 -4 2 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 142 135 122 97 94 86 39 5 174 177 183 175 129 SST (C) 17.7 16.7 15.9 15.1 14.3 13.1 13.9 14.5 14.2 15.1 16.3 18.2 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 62 61 61 61 63 66 64 59 63 62 64 66 73 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.9 -55.5 -55.8 -55.2 -55.4 -54.8 -54.7 -55.2 -55.2 -54.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 47 50 51 54 53 53 58 59 47 46 44 41 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 16 15 14 16 22 22 20 20 17 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -4 -2 3 3 -11 37 66 70 62 47 88 120 200 MB DIV -4 -12 10 16 8 30 25 6 -18 -34 -40 -18 -2 LAND (KM) 1492 1362 1264 1150 1024 675 614 595 859 1001 1150 1542 1705 LAT (DEG N) 42.3 43.5 44.4 45.4 46.5 49.9 52.8 54.3 52.1 49.4 46.9 41.8 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 161.4 161.9 162.1 161.7 160.9 157.0 151.4 148.5 147.0 144.4 143.8 143.5 143.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 11 16 24 19 5 17 12 19 24 16 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):338/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -22. -27. -31. -32. -34. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 2. -4. -11. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 33. 43. 49. 52. 52. 51. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. 4. 5. 3. 2. -3. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -7. -13. -19. -24. -36. -46. -53.