* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GUILLERMO EP091997 08/18/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 23 23 25 26 24 26 27 24 23 23 20 19 24 SHEAR (KT) 35 27 22 17 16 7 8 12 15 34 42 41 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 6 4 -2 -8 -4 -2 2 10 15 6 SHEAR DIR 128 103 76 64 42 32 115 132 155 172 168 162 134 SST (C) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.2 15.7 16.0 16.7 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 66 66 65 62 60 58 58 56 60 62 60 62 64 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -55.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 54 54 56 58 57 55 51 56 57 56 55 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 15 17 18 18 17 15 12 11 8 5 9 850 MB ENV VOR -1 25 54 71 83 89 96 96 119 96 78 80 126 200 MB DIV 15 5 16 9 18 1 5 1 -7 -10 -11 15 46 LAND (KM) 830 894 930 785 680 623 560 490 519 629 656 729 567 LAT (DEG N) 49.4 50.5 51.2 51.6 52.0 51.6 51.7 52.2 51.7 49.2 47.5 45.6 46.2 LONG(DEG W) 153.4 149.6 146.1 143.3 141.8 140.1 139.0 138.3 138.2 137.0 135.7 134.3 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 27 25 21 14 8 4 4 1 7 14 9 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 68/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -20. -24. -29. -30. -31. -33. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 10. 6. -0. -11. -22. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 9. 14. 27. 41. 52. 62. 68. 72. 72. 70. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -10. -12. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -15. -14. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. -3. -10. -17. -31. -46. -52.