* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * IGNACIO EP111997 08/19/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 34 20 17 14 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 34 32 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 10 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 352 11 17 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.0 21.5 21.0 20.6 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 76 70 65 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 39 38 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 15 14 16 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 5 31 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 663 599 572 505 448 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.9 28.7 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.7 121.6 121.7 121.3 120.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):352/ 14 CX,CY: -1/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -20. -20. -21. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -7. -15. -23. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -13. -21. -36. -51. -67. -83. -96.-108.-118.-126.