* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLIWA CP021997 09/06/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 50 64 79 93 108 117 128 133 135 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 50 64 79 93 108 117 128 133 135 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 42 48 56 66 75 83 90 94 99 V (KT) G08R 28 22 24 24 32 36 40 50 61 67 68 75 72 SHEAR (KT) 6 12 7 9 8 5 9 11 5 6 9 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -5 -5 -4 -2 -5 0 0 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 265 290 267 219 187 130 137 156 179 249 259 190 241 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 156 157 159 159 159 159 162 160 161 155 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 16 16 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 67 68 68 65 63 61 62 65 64 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 14 16 18 23 28 34 39 43 45 48 850 MB ENV VOR 85 77 81 83 80 78 83 86 92 102 114 125 125 200 MB DIV 41 60 43 48 65 45 47 58 61 41 21 9 70 LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.7 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.6 18.2 19.4 20.3 20.8 22.3 23.9 LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 10 9 9 11 14 14 10 15 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 24. 33. 38. 45. 46. 45. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 15. 29. 44. 58. 73. 82. 93. 98. 100.