* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLIWA CP021997 09/11/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 134 128 124 121 116 107 100 95 94 89 83 72 V (KT) LAND 140 134 128 124 121 116 107 100 95 94 89 83 72 V (KT) LGE mod 140 134 127 121 116 108 102 94 86 78 73 69 65 V (KT) G00R 53 63 64 65 67 71 73 75 67 73 69 76 68 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 10 7 10 4 12 15 8 17 16 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 3 0 1 4 6 4 0 2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 202 231 252 245 209 158 63 58 12 354 4 24 59 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.2 27.4 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 147 143 137 140 143 143 142 142 143 140 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.7 -49.9 -49.6 -49.2 -48.3 -48.4 -47.9 -48.1 -47.6 -47.8 -47.4 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 16 16 16 16 15 16 16 16 13 10 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 59 57 54 55 54 55 53 51 51 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 45 46 48 48 50 52 51 51 51 53 53 53 50 850 MB ENV VOR 185 206 223 214 212 230 209 200 203 181 183 163 149 200 MB DIV 63 41 44 51 65 -3 6 -18 15 -10 49 13 65 LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.0 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.9 24.6 26.2 27.3 27.9 28.4 29.0 29.6 LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 14 16 13 9 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -26. -38. -47. -54. -61. -66. -71. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 10. 10. 12. 12. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -19. -24. -33. -40. -45. -46. -51. -57. -68.