* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LINDA EP141997 09/11/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 76 79 90 95 103 105 103 102 94 80 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 76 79 90 95 103 105 103 102 94 80 V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 73 74 75 75 75 74 73 70 66 61 55 V (KT) G01R 26 27 29 29 32 43 51 58 59 64 64 59 47 SHEAR (KT) 15 7 6 6 10 5 8 8 12 10 10 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 4 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 275 273 282 273 285 225 245 271 230 237 245 315 323 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.3 27.4 25.9 25.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 161 159 157 157 155 154 147 139 124 118 113 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -50.6 -51.1 -49.6 -50.1 -49.0 -50.0 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 17 13 12 13 14 14 15 15 13 11 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 76 74 70 66 64 63 64 63 59 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 18 20 21 27 31 37 40 41 42 40 35 850 MB ENV VOR 22 30 33 34 29 42 55 68 82 89 97 126 142 200 MB DIV 85 58 61 102 112 69 56 11 32 -7 17 -39 43 LAND (KM) 556 549 560 614 648 692 692 683 752 858 979 1169 1285 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.0 20.0 20.4 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.4 107.8 108.5 109.3 109.8 110.7 111.8 113.5 115.5 117.8 120.3 123.2 125.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 6 4 7 7 10 10 12 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):324/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 13. 19. 29. 34. 35. 37. 33. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 25. 30. 38. 40. 38. 37. 29. 15.