* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLIWA CP021997 09/11/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 133 126 122 117 112 103 97 92 87 81 74 62 V (KT) LAND 140 133 126 122 117 112 103 97 92 87 81 74 62 V (KT) LGE mod 140 134 127 121 116 108 101 93 84 77 71 66 60 V (KT) G04R 67 59 59 62 59 66 61 65 64 61 72 67 62 SHEAR (KT) 15 10 8 5 7 5 8 14 12 15 19 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 1 0 0 3 3 3 -2 0 -1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 194 215 213 174 200 94 57 29 39 357 357 10 68 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 151 146 142 138 141 143 141 141 143 142 136 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -50.0 -49.7 -49.4 -48.7 -48.7 -48.0 -48.2 -47.9 -48.3 -47.9 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 11 9 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 64 64 65 62 59 58 58 55 54 51 50 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 44 43 44 45 45 48 47 48 49 49 49 49 46 850 MB ENV VOR 175 196 211 206 202 213 188 188 179 161 160 142 118 200 MB DIV 71 36 47 58 71 43 0 1 15 -24 26 17 84 LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.3 22.1 23.7 25.3 26.9 28.0 28.3 29.0 29.6 30.9 LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 15 16 16 15 12 7 6 6 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -26. -37. -47. -54. -61. -67. -71. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -18. -23. -28. -37. -43. -48. -53. -59. -66. -78.