* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERIKA AL071997 09/11/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 66 61 58 54 53 46 41 37 32 28 25 V (KT) LAND 80 72 66 61 58 54 53 46 41 37 32 28 25 V (KT) LGE mod 80 72 67 64 60 55 50 46 46 47 47 45 43 V (KT) G06R 76 53 51 53 56 65 67 63 52 48 42 43 42 SHEAR (KT) 22 27 26 19 16 24 14 11 7 12 21 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 8 16 1 -4 0 2 2 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 37 44 53 62 43 47 51 43 86 65 49 39 33 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.1 24.1 23.5 23.1 22.8 22.4 20.5 19.3 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 110 110 110 111 110 100 94 89 90 90 81 77 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 95 97 99 98 88 81 74 76 79 72 70 68 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.9 -56.0 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 3 4 5 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 43 39 37 38 42 44 44 48 51 48 45 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 38 36 37 39 44 49 46 42 38 36 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 79 74 89 110 141 200 202 186 189 179 150 120 96 200 MB DIV 91 40 51 42 44 41 43 30 20 11 15 10 53 LAND (KM) 1225 1218 1232 1190 1153 1084 1025 951 1058 1267 1449 1547 1611 LAT (DEG N) 34.5 34.9 35.4 36.0 36.6 38.6 40.4 41.8 41.9 41.7 43.1 44.6 46.7 LONG(DEG W) 57.2 56.2 54.3 52.2 49.8 45.7 43.7 43.2 41.6 38.7 35.3 33.2 31.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 17 19 21 15 10 3 7 15 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 33/ 16 CX,CY: 9/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -23. -30. -36. -41. -43. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 5. 3. -0. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -19. -22. -26. -27. -34. -39. -43. -48. -52. -55.