* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLIWA CP021997 09/11/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 134 129 126 123 119 110 105 96 90 82 66 48 V (KT) LAND 140 134 129 126 123 119 110 105 96 90 82 66 48 V (KT) LGE mod 140 134 128 122 118 110 102 94 85 76 68 60 50 V (KT) G07R 50 58 58 63 62 68 71 72 65 68 69 64 53 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 10 5 8 6 7 7 10 22 21 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 0 0 2 6 9 0 1 0 12 15 SHEAR DIR 214 251 264 240 225 105 43 42 22 16 25 33 71 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 146 142 138 141 143 140 139 138 134 132 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.8 -49.9 -49.5 -49.0 -48.4 -48.2 -47.4 -47.9 -47.3 -48.3 -48.4 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 16 16 16 15 15 16 16 15 11 8 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 60 57 53 55 53 53 49 47 45 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 42 44 45 46 47 50 49 50 48 49 48 44 38 850 MB ENV VOR 173 194 208 199 200 207 186 179 183 157 154 128 96 200 MB DIV 57 50 33 41 76 6 -4 -11 -10 -9 31 9 72 LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.5 20.9 21.6 22.2 23.9 25.6 27.3 28.5 29.3 30.0 30.9 32.0 LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 16 15 12 5 4 6 4 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -26. -38. -47. -54. -62. -68. -73. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 9. 11. 9. 10. 9. 3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -14. -17. -21. -30. -35. -44. -50. -58. -74. -92.