* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LINDA EP141997 09/15/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 65 58 51 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 72 65 58 51 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 73 67 61 57 49 41 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 41 40 37 36 37 44 45 38 35 29 25 21 18 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 7 10 13 18 29 34 44 44 33 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 1 2 11 12 6 8 1 3 5 17 SHEAR DIR 333 351 360 354 3 51 13 37 45 49 49 51 31 SST (C) 24.5 24.2 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.3 22.8 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.9 23.2 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 107 104 102 101 100 95 89 87 85 86 89 93 96 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.2 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 47 46 45 39 33 30 29 25 22 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 29 27 27 27 27 28 26 22 17 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 105 113 104 100 108 106 89 56 26 34 16 3 -6 200 MB DIV 5 -6 18 30 35 15 58 13 8 -4 9 -42 -14 LAND (KM) 866 925 997 1069 1131 1238 1316 1309 1290 1332 1384 1539 1702 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.4 22.5 23.3 24.3 25.4 26.2 26.1 25.8 24.9 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 122.0 123.0 123.8 124.6 126.3 127.6 128.8 129.6 130.1 130.5 131.7 133.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 9 8 8 3 2 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):283/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -21. -30. -38. -45. -50. -54. -57. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -13. -19. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -6. -12. -18. -25. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -22. -29. -40. -51. -67. -87.-108.-129.-143.-151.