* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLIWA CP021997 09/15/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 72 66 59 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 79 72 66 59 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 81 76 71 64 48 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 60 61 63 69 60 48 25 31 28 23 35 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 25 33 28 27 48 62 82 108 123 114 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 4 17 23 18 9 2 -26 -43 -32 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 26 21 39 50 35 41 64 73 78 93 114 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.3 25.9 23.4 17.5 12.8 12.0 12.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 142 139 126 104 68 66 70 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.0 -48.5 -49.1 -49.0 -48.8 -49.2 -49.3 -49.5 -50.1 -50.6 -49.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 54 55 48 46 55 54 50 52 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 45 45 44 44 43 32 22 18 15 12 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 126 129 115 99 95 53 39 48 30 -1 -19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 23 39 78 104 111 86 75 71 38 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.6 30.2 31.1 32.3 35.7 39.8 43.6 46.3 47.5 47.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 11 15 22 33 32 24 44 1173 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):324/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -10. -22. -34. -43. -50. -55. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -20. -34. -57. -89.-120.-138.-146. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -3. -0. 2. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -23. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 5. 8. 11. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -15. -30. -38. -42. -44. -46. -48. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -26. -54. -89.-126.-163.-206.-244.-269.-278.