* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLAF EP171997 10/03/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 47 53 57 62 68 73 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 40 47 53 57 62 68 73 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 37 43 51 59 67 74 V (KT) G07R 15 14 13 13 13 16 16 17 18 21 23 22 21 SHEAR (KT) 15 16 10 5 2 6 5 11 12 18 12 12 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 0 0 0 -2 1 -2 -3 1 6 2 SHEAR DIR 246 254 245 247 289 47 84 96 93 86 57 65 179 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 147 141 139 138 142 144 149 151 152 146 143 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 11 10 12 12 13 14 14 14 15 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 66 64 67 62 62 61 62 61 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 31 24 23 6 6 7 -6 4 6 16 20 27 26 200 MB DIV 10 14 9 17 11 -7 9 0 13 37 47 12 4 LAND (KM) 615 609 640 641 615 674 738 771 786 687 543 465 444 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.7 17.2 17.5 17.3 16.8 16.4 16.1 15.6 15.4 15.1 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 109.5 110.4 111.0 111.3 112.5 112.8 112.6 112.1 110.1 108.0 106.2 105.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 7 9 6 6 4 3 3 9 9 11 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 37. 43. 48. 49.