* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLAF EP171997 10/03/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 51 59 66 73 80 86 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 51 59 66 73 80 86 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 41 48 57 66 74 V (KT) G08R 17 21 21 18 19 22 23 25 28 33 31 32 35 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 8 4 2 4 5 9 10 9 13 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -1 1 3 5 3 1 -2 -3 2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 235 240 211 169 139 153 146 90 82 110 77 48 357 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 147 143 141 143 144 146 148 153 152 150 136 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 15 17 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 64 63 68 63 64 64 66 64 62 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 12 12 11 13 13 14 16 19 21 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 25 13 0 8 -13 12 18 23 46 55 98 200 MB DIV 21 35 26 23 6 -11 10 55 82 46 80 49 72 LAND (KM) 567 602 599 640 663 752 787 824 838 823 529 340 162 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.8 17.2 17.2 16.7 16.4 16.0 15.8 15.2 16.2 16.9 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.5 110.0 110.9 111.9 112.9 113.0 112.9 112.7 111.4 108.7 106.9 105.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 4 2 1 3 12 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 31. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 13. 17. 19. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 26. 34. 41. 48. 55. 61. 58.