* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLAF EP171997 10/05/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 33 46 50 50 43 34 27 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 33 46 50 50 43 34 27 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 26 26 24 22 20 23 V (KT) G05R 36 33 31 30 30 34 36 35 32 32 26 27 22 SHEAR (KT) 6 9 19 26 23 12 22 23 26 30 28 36 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 0 0 -4 1 0 5 3 6 11 3 SHEAR DIR 108 92 96 94 80 67 42 44 34 33 35 40 32 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.0 27.5 26.7 26.2 25.8 27.3 28.5 29.1 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 142 137 132 137 128 125 122 135 147 156 162 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 13 9 12 700-500 MB RH 69 65 66 59 56 61 57 55 54 50 44 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 15 17 24 25 26 25 21 18 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 23 26 23 18 36 49 74 87 80 83 75 200 MB DIV 28 55 74 50 64 57 68 69 49 -3 32 5 19 LAND (KM) 945 920 875 825 814 857 712 611 394 205 108 13 20 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.6 19.2 18.5 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.5 22.0 23.7 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.4 116.4 116.7 117.4 117.1 116.5 115.4 113.0 111.3 110.4 110.8 110.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 6 6 4 9 11 6 5 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):282/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. 8. 11. 13. 11. 6. 2. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 21. 25. 25. 18. 9. 2. -7. -12.