* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLAF EP171997 10/05/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 39 45 43 36 28 21 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 39 45 43 36 28 21 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 30 30 28 25 23 21 18 21 V (KT) G07R 51 43 45 49 50 51 44 40 35 34 28 25 21 SHEAR (KT) 5 6 12 11 8 21 24 21 28 30 25 37 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 2 11 5 1 -1 1 3 4 6 0 SHEAR DIR 32 53 83 81 80 86 63 50 43 43 31 35 40 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 26.9 25.8 25.6 26.5 27.5 28.8 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 146 143 132 119 118 127 137 151 158 161 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 14 10 13 700-500 MB RH 65 63 66 65 63 58 54 53 49 41 42 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 24 25 26 23 26 26 24 21 18 14 9 850 MB ENV VOR 5 9 14 17 15 15 28 40 63 55 64 55 61 200 MB DIV 34 42 58 53 65 61 75 66 42 8 36 20 20 LAND (KM) 992 1005 997 943 866 692 538 434 268 173 63 -18 0 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.7 19.0 20.4 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.7 24.1 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 116.8 116.9 116.6 116.2 115.2 114.5 113.8 112.2 111.3 110.6 110.8 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 6 8 8 5 7 7 4 6 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):282/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -7. -10. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. -0. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -12. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 20. 18. 11. 3. -4. -9. -16.