* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLAF EP171997 10/12/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 32 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 29 20 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 307 323 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.4 14.1 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 62 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 17 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 66 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 73 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 30 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 76 -14 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.3 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.2 104.6 105.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):347/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 411 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -14. -22. -26. -31. -36. -38. -40. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -11. -21. -29. -37. -45. -48. -51. -54. -60.