* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GRACE AL091997 10/15/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 44 43 38 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 44 43 38 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 35 34 31 28 25 22 20 18 17 16 V (KT) G05R 34 37 34 35 39 32 28 24 23 21 20 18 20 SHEAR (KT) 59 58 54 47 47 49 45 42 36 36 35 38 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 3 6 0 -1 3 5 7 3 0 8 SHEAR DIR 47 48 45 45 39 51 64 88 86 113 123 157 141 SST (C) 28.9 24.8 27.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 101 133 149 147 148 141 137 142 144 143 143 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 90 117 136 136 136 130 126 130 130 129 127 122 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 58 58 54 48 43 39 35 31 31 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 17 18 20 19 16 13 10 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 109 117 95 95 92 70 27 -17 -28 -33 -22 -25 -9 200 MB DIV 91 86 55 32 30 -11 -28 -22 -47 -43 -78 -61 -48 LAND (KM) 89 59 92 140 206 411 617 807 1024 1179 1302 1308 1331 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.3 20.6 21.0 21.4 22.6 23.9 24.8 25.1 24.7 23.6 22.6 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 70.6 70.6 70.2 69.1 67.3 64.6 62.1 59.0 56.6 54.5 54.0 53.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 4 4 8 10 12 13 14 13 11 9 6 2 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -21. -31. -36. -42. -43. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 3. -6. -13. -21. -24. -25. -25.