* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * RICK EP191997 11/08/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 41 51 58 59 58 60 62 65 68 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 41 51 58 59 37 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 28 26 25 24 24 29 35 27 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 8 10 13 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 3 1 0 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 69 93 99 87 71 50 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 152 153 154 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.8 -53.3 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 77 79 81 84 84 84 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 12 11 12 14 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 29 41 44 51 79 100 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 41 48 83 99 107 153 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 735 697 640 567 493 330 199 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.4 14.2 15.5 16.3 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.3 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.2 104.5 103.4 100.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. -1. -4. -9. -8. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 11. 21. 28. 29. 28. 30. 32. 35. 38.