* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * RICK EP191997 11/08/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 40 51 58 54 59 61 63 66 68 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 40 51 58 43 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 35 40 45 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 29 24 26 27 28 31 39 22 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 11 10 5 12 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 3 3 3 0 -1 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 71 92 122 123 63 35 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 151 152 155 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 77 77 81 85 84 85 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 13 14 15 14 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 18 23 24 41 77 95 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 50 57 66 74 97 164 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 766 720 680 612 515 301 126 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.7 15.4 16.8 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.9 104.2 104.5 104.7 104.6 103.6 102.2 100.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 8 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -1. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 21. 28. 24. 29. 31. 33. 36. 38.