* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAKA CP051997 12/13/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 89 88 88 91 96 98 98 94 88 78 71 V (KT) LAND 100 94 89 88 88 91 96 98 98 94 88 78 71 V (KT) LGE mod 100 94 90 86 83 80 81 84 86 84 79 73 66 V (KT) G06R 45 36 37 44 48 43 50 51 54 56 58 55 52 SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 6 2 8 11 10 12 19 16 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 6 8 -1 1 8 7 2 9 15 19 SHEAR DIR 186 218 217 213 270 19 56 29 40 38 49 58 79 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 147 147 146 147 144 144 142 142 142 142 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 12 13 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 70 68 69 61 56 51 49 51 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 24 24 25 27 28 31 33 34 35 34 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 152 144 138 130 124 123 91 79 49 31 50 46 23 200 MB DIV 73 73 75 73 50 70 96 117 59 18 35 13 13 LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.8 10.0 10.7 11.4 12.3 13.8 15.0 15.9 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.7 LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 14 17 18 15 14 7 5 2 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 12. 14. 14. 13. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -12. -9. -4. -2. -2. -6. -12. -22. -29.