* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAKA CP051997 12/20/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 99 85 74 65 52 44 41 40 39 33 26 18 V (KT) LAND 110 99 85 74 65 52 44 41 40 39 33 26 18 V (KT) LGE mod 110 102 92 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 43 27 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 18 30 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 90 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.0 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 137 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 4 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 18.0 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 780 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -21. -27. -33. -38. -42. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -11. -16. -20. -25. -28. -28. -27. -26. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -12. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -25. -36. -45. -58. -66. -69. -70. -71. -77. -84. -92.