* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAKA CP051997 12/22/97 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 29 20 19 19 18 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 25 33 38 40 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 16 10 10 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 86 76 76 81 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 133 132 131 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 16 15 14 14 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 31 32 29 26 23 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 11 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 17 19 13 -4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 16 14 18 1 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.9 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):293/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -17. -24. -30. -33. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -18. -18. -17. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -13. -21. -28. -32. -36. -39. -43. -43. -43.