* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902006 05/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 50 58 65 68 70 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 50 58 65 68 70 70 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 24 17 18 19 16 17 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 16 20 18 17 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 5 7 12 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 56 42 34 45 44 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 158 158 161 163 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 12 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 66 68 65 64 66 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -16 -14 -10 -13 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 119 106 112 110 100 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 799 771 743 757 725 670 803 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.9 10.2 9.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.3 100.3 99.7 101.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 1 1 4 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 25. 33. 38. 43. 47. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 25. 33. 40. 43. 45. 45. 45.