* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902006 05/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 56 66 73 77 80 80 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 56 66 73 77 80 80 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 25 18 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 88 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 64 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -5 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 109 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 851 764 710 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.5 9.6 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.6 100.6 99.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 16. 26. 34. 40. 44. 49. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 31. 41. 48. 52. 55. 55. 55.