* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902006 05/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 46 57 67 76 81 83 85 87 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 46 57 67 76 81 83 85 87 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 19 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 786 868 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.0 8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.1 101.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 958 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 27. 36. 42. 47. 51. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 10. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 21. 32. 42. 51. 56. 58. 60. 62.