* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902006 05/16/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 39 48 57 64 68 70 72 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 39 48 57 64 68 70 72 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 35 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 23 14 12 14 16 20 17 17 15 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 12 11 13 12 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 9 11 9 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 32 35 22 20 9 36 69 37 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 164 160 163 162 163 164 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 68 63 64 63 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -54 -45 -37 -38 -45 -45 -43 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 81 96 95 50 24 22 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 611 534 600 611 611 599 552 622 626 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.9 10.3 10.2 10.2 9.9 10.6 10.1 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.8 96.5 96.2 96.0 96.0 95.2 95.3 96.2 96.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 8 4 1 4 4 4 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 6/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 26. 34. 40. 45. 49. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 23. 32. 39. 43. 45. 47. 47.