* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902006 05/16/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 53 62 73 78 80 83 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 53 62 73 78 80 83 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 41 48 55 61 64 66 V (KT) G07R 24 22 26 26 24 24 27 23 25 23 28 32 28 SHEAR (KT) 14 15 16 12 12 10 12 8 5 6 9 9 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 10 14 16 14 5 8 12 16 22 8 3 SHEAR DIR 35 45 42 53 69 57 60 71 70 77 101 126 80 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 163 161 163 161 162 160 162 162 165 166 168 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 12 13 12 13 12 13 13 14 14 16 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 63 63 62 60 57 55 54 50 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 12 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -10 -2 5 1 6 10 2 -2 -5 -6 -4 20 200 MB DIV 118 132 96 86 84 72 88 67 107 73 67 55 41 LAND (KM) 616 592 553 551 555 546 599 668 633 565 486 392 306 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.3 10.9 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 99.2 99.2 98.8 98.7 99.0 99.5 99.7 100.5 100.8 100.5 100.1 99.2 98.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 1 4 0 4 2 4 3 5 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 6/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 8. 16. 25. 34. 39. 44. 49. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 28. 37. 48. 53. 55. 58. 56.