* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALETTA EP012006 05/25/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 31 37 51 63 63 56 52 54 59 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 31 37 51 63 63 50 36 31 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 32 38 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 34 29 31 35 38 40 44 50 26 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 7 10 13 13 8 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -6 -2 -1 0 2 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 184 173 99 89 67 72 18 338 352 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 156 157 159 160 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -51.7 -52.4 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 13 14 13 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 64 67 64 64 65 61 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 17 19 19 21 22 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -11 -5 2 6 -5 7 17 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 95 101 119 118 82 94 81 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 676 623 565 532 504 408 286 146 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.9 11.5 12.0 12.4 13.4 14.6 15.9 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.8 100.3 100.5 100.8 101.2 101.2 101.2 101.1 101.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 6 6 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 16. 25. 29. 34. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 5. -4. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 11. 17. 31. 43. 43. 36. 32. 34. 39. 43.