* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALETTA EP012006 05/25/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 32 38 50 60 54 45 48 51 55 59 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 32 38 50 60 54 35 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 32 29 29 34 35 38 49 39 11 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 7 10 11 8 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -4 2 8 3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 92 157 103 78 57 32 331 346 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 155 157 159 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 13 12 14 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 70 67 67 66 64 57 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 20 20 23 23 15 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -18 -9 -3 8 4 32 61 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 93 87 100 124 91 115 76 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 600 637 600 583 497 406 231 7 -272 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.5 11.8 12.6 13.5 15.1 17.1 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.1 101.0 101.2 101.6 101.5 101.5 101.2 100.7 99.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 6 6 6 8 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 16. 25. 33. 39. 44. 48. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. -2. -15. -15. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 18. 30. 40. 34. 25. 28. 31. 35. 39.