* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALETTA EP012006 05/26/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 56 51 49 54 57 59 63 66 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 56 51 34 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 37 45 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 37 37 36 42 45 52 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 11 4 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -4 -4 -2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 90 94 89 58 20 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 160 160 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 13 13 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 63 63 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 21 22 23 21 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -4 -8 -2 14 17 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 69 77 87 94 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 528 496 430 383 327 192 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.8 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.5 101.7 101.7 101.8 102.0 101.8 102.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. -8. -15. -15. -14. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 21. 31. 26. 24. 29. 32. 34. 38. 41.