* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALETTA EP012006 05/26/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 49 57 64 66 69 68 68 65 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 49 57 64 66 69 68 68 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 39 44 49 54 58 61 64 67 V (KT) G08R 23 26 26 27 26 28 30 33 30 35 28 29 23 SHEAR (KT) 18 21 21 21 17 18 12 15 6 3 7 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 1 0 7 9 6 2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 97 101 100 113 110 100 108 103 98 20 352 360 330 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.2 27.2 28.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 160 160 160 157 155 153 143 133 147 137 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 13 14 13 13 12 13 11 13 10 11 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 66 67 66 63 65 63 62 57 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 11 12 13 13 12 12 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -13 -22 -23 -8 -7 9 4 21 5 21 10 11 200 MB DIV 45 47 37 49 74 71 102 89 87 36 28 -10 15 LAND (KM) 588 516 464 425 397 331 293 206 187 163 124 160 167 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 12.2 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.5 17.6 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.0 101.2 101.7 102.2 102.7 103.7 103.2 103.6 103.7 104.2 104.8 105.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 3 3 3 0 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 32. 36. 39. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 24. 32. 39. 41. 44. 43. 43. 40.