* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALETTA EP012006 05/26/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 47 55 65 72 78 81 84 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 47 55 65 72 78 81 84 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 40 47 53 60 66 73 78 82 V (KT) G10R 29 23 27 27 24 24 24 26 28 36 38 39 34 SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 18 13 18 11 15 7 8 3 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 -3 0 0 4 0 4 -1 4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 89 94 96 104 94 106 103 97 74 100 19 44 330 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 156 157 159 158 159 158 157 154 150 148 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 14 13 13 11 12 700-500 MB RH 68 65 67 64 66 64 64 61 57 55 52 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 11 13 14 15 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -28 -36 -36 -15 -8 -11 -15 -4 -26 -15 -15 -2 200 MB DIV 40 43 42 45 67 83 63 58 79 30 46 27 18 LAND (KM) 623 610 558 521 478 438 335 298 279 285 290 310 337 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 12.0 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.7 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.2 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.2 101.5 101.7 102.2 102.9 102.6 102.9 103.6 104.2 104.8 105.3 105.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 24. 32. 37. 41. 44. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 30. 40. 47. 53. 56. 59. 58.