* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALBERTO AL012006 06/10/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 44 53 59 59 64 66 69 73 75 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 44 53 59 59 64 66 69 73 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 29 31 35 36 37 39 42 48 57 69 V (KT) G07R 29 27 33 34 37 33 31 24 23 23 24 19 20 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 14 16 22 24 23 20 23 16 12 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 6 6 0 4 4 -2 -1 -6 1 0 SHEAR DIR 45 53 76 55 46 57 57 65 57 82 59 64 40 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 149 143 138 135 134 131 132 135 140 142 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 138 147 138 129 122 118 111 117 120 128 126 137 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 12 13 12 13 12 16 13 18 14 17 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 66 63 55 50 45 45 42 49 55 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 15 18 18 19 19 17 15 14 11 9 4 850 MB ENV VOR 77 74 58 50 32 15 -5 11 42 22 18 19 26 200 MB DIV 68 57 68 93 91 52 45 7 17 -19 -6 28 39 LAND (KM) 148 191 263 99 38 236 352 406 401 418 249 130 80 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.9 20.6 21.6 23.7 24.4 24.6 24.3 23.6 22.3 20.9 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 84.6 84.7 85.0 86.0 86.6 88.3 89.8 91.1 91.8 93.7 94.8 95.7 94.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 9 16 15 13 10 7 3 8 8 10 5 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 21/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 19. 28. 34. 34. 39. 41. 44. 48. 50.