* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALBERTO AL012006 06/11/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 41 44 44 43 40 40 39 37 30 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 41 44 44 43 34 37 36 34 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 30 30 29 26 29 29 27 23 V (KT) G04R 32 30 33 30 29 29 30 29 26 32 32 38 39 SHEAR (KT) 33 25 20 21 28 29 32 31 36 44 55 59 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 4 9 8 1 5 -1 2 -3 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 58 67 71 74 66 72 64 55 48 56 57 50 39 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 25.4 7.3 26.2 25.3 24.5 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 137 137 134 133 129 108 64 119 112 108 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 121 122 120 115 116 110 95 63 107 104 103 82 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -53.5 -53.0 -54.3 -54.2 -55.2 -54.9 -55.5 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 13 14 11 15 11 13 9 9 6 3 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 54 51 49 51 47 47 49 56 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 18 20 20 19 19 16 14 16 17 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 15 9 2 -6 -16 -17 18 34 61 54 60 78 42 200 MB DIV 51 59 57 66 43 50 62 45 57 70 68 64 70 LAND (KM) 172 224 310 408 431 367 252 133 -70 180 227 571 476 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.5 24.3 25.2 25.8 26.6 27.3 28.2 29.5 31.2 33.4 36.5 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 86.7 86.8 86.8 87.0 86.7 85.2 84.1 81.8 79.2 74.7 68.7 62.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 8 4 8 5 9 13 18 24 33 30 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 14. 14. 13. 10. 10. 9. 7. 0.