* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012006 06/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 34 31 35 31 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 30 35 30 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 21 26 23 28 32 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 39 40 46 49 59 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 0 -6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 66 63 59 56 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A 19.5 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A 83 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A N/A 78 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -55.0 -55.6 -55.3 -54.7 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 4 2 7 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 56 60 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 14 15 17 18 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 25 47 64 80 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 111 65 48 66 81 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -161 -144 -164 -155 72 328 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.7 34.5 36.0 37.1 40.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.1 82.2 80.5 78.0 75.0 67.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 19 24 26 27 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 32/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -6. -6. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. -1. -12. -21. -28. -32. -36. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -4. 0. -4. -12. -19. -24. -28. -32. -39.