* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012006 06/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 34 32 34 37 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 34 36 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 32 37 34 40 40 44 47 38 31 25 25 20 17 SHEAR (KT) 36 36 43 49 52 51 68 65 70 60 45 41 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 1 3 9 -5 0 -3 0 -1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 69 69 62 56 48 34 30 40 62 74 100 117 118 SST (C) N/A N/A N/A 19.1 20.8 13.2 10.4 6.6 10.2 9.3 11.9 14.3 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A 82 89 72 69 70 72 71 72 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A 78 85 70 67 69 71 70 69 70 68 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.4 -55.9 -55.0 -54.7 -55.4 -54.4 -54.7 -53.6 -52.1 -52.5 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 3 3 7 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 57 60 59 53 50 44 46 41 42 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 18 20 23 26 33 35 30 20 15 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 42 19 52 76 93 116 142 60 30 47 25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 59 66 103 97 110 69 42 45 27 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -87 -71 -111 -33 215 211 115 -7 644 1442 854 314 237 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 33.1 34.8 36.4 37.8 41.6 44.2 47.5 51.7 54.6 54.7 52.0 49.4 LONG(DEG W) 82.1 80.7 78.8 76.2 72.7 65.6 60.7 54.1 45.2 34.0 23.1 14.8 9.0 STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 25 29 34 27 24 32 37 34 29 26 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 32/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -5. -5. -8. -10. -10. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -9. -18. -24. -27. -29. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 8. 5. -2. -7. -6. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -3. -1. 2. 0. -13. -29. -41. -46. -52. -62.