* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012006 06/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 33 26 33 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 36 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 21 27 29 26 32 40 40 32 28 26 25 29 29 SHEAR (KT) 39 39 43 43 52 51 67 76 79 73 63 38 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -7 -1 -4 3 7 10 3 11 4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 64 65 61 60 59 52 39 51 72 91 98 72 45 SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A 14.1 21.5 10.3 5.5 11.4 11.5 12.8 13.1 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A 73 93 72 70 74 73 71 69 64 ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A N/A N/A 71 90 71 69 72 71 69 66 62 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.8 -55.3 -55.0 -54.6 -55.4 -55.0 -55.0 -54.5 -52.5 -51.5 -49.9 -48.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 4 4 8 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 52 55 65 66 55 47 50 50 50 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 16 16 16 17 21 24 19 14 12 14 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 61 35 53 74 79 126 108 49 -7 35 62 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 58 39 65 82 99 90 26 6 23 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -159 -165 -162 -134 -47 385 228 145 855 1142 494 145 25 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 32.4 33.7 34.8 35.7 38.8 44.2 48.0 51.1 54.2 54.7 55.6 57.0 LONG(DEG W) 83.2 82.7 81.5 79.6 76.6 67.8 58.5 50.8 41.7 27.5 17.5 10.2 6.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 18 22 29 46 36 33 42 37 26 17 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 32/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -8. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. -0. -11. -21. -28. -32. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -26. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. 1. 2. -2. -5. -7. -6. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -9. -2. -6. -23. -39. -52. -58. -62. -71.