* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALBERTO AL012006 06/16/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 47 40 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 41 39 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 43 42 37 28 22 19 19 20 21 23 DIS V (KT) G01R 55 39 37 33 31 22 23 21 18 20 24 21 0 SHEAR (KT) 58 63 59 63 61 48 30 26 25 24 20 20 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 9 6 3 1 2 3 0 2 3 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 36 42 44 49 62 74 80 71 51 23 21 16 N/A SST (C) 11.1 9.2 8.0 6.8 10.7 9.3 11.6 11.5 11.3 10.2 7.3 5.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 70 69 70 71 73 72 69 68 68 65 66 65 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 69 68 69 70 72 70 67 66 66 63 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -52.3 -51.6 -50.6 -49.7 -49.7 -48.2 -46.4 -45.1 -43.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 55 48 41 40 44 49 56 56 52 47 59 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 41 34 30 24 20 14 15 13 11 11 4 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 130 101 82 73 74 84 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 46 30 9 32 30 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 103 125 -11 290 713 1485 915 527 217 307 645 1045 N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.6 46.3 47.9 50.2 52.4 55.5 57.1 57.5 59.1 61.2 64.3 67.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.2 57.2 54.0 49.7 44.6 33.2 23.3 15.7 8.7 6.2 4.2 6.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 27 32 38 39 36 21 18 18 12 19 17 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 49/ 24 CX,CY: 18/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -13. -19. -23. -26. -28. -29. -30. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 2. -5. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -25. -29. -33. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -10. -17. -19. -20. -22. -23. -29. -26. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -15. -21. -35. -46. -59. -71. -80. -96.-107.-120.