* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALBERTO AL012006 06/16/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 47 40 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 42 40 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 49 42 37 28 22 20 20 21 23 26 29 V (KT) G05R 49 38 36 31 30 25 24 27 25 20 16 17 17 SHEAR (KT) 58 57 59 63 60 53 31 24 21 19 18 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 7 3 1 0 1 0 0 3 2 5 3 SHEAR DIR 38 42 40 48 63 75 82 71 50 38 65 75 60 SST (C) 11.3 9.3 7.7 6.2 10.5 9.3 11.8 11.5 11.6 11.3 8.9 6.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 70 68 69 71 73 72 69 66 66 67 66 65 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 68 67 68 70 72 71 67 64 63 65 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -52.8 -52.3 -51.5 -50.4 -49.9 -47.8 -47.3 -47.4 -46.7 -44.1 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 54 46 40 41 43 46 49 53 49 46 56 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 33 29 23 19 13 16 13 14 12 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 120 103 90 60 61 77 72 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 37 29 12 25 26 19 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 73 132 0 164 585 1416 916 617 448 338 467 813 1240 LAT (DEG N) 44.6 46.2 47.4 49.5 51.8 54.5 56.3 57.2 58.0 59.7 62.6 65.8 69.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.7 58.2 55.3 51.2 46.2 34.3 23.7 17.8 13.6 10.5 6.8 6.2 9.2 STM SPEED (KT) 24 23 29 37 39 38 22 13 11 16 15 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 49/ 24 CX,CY: 18/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -26. -28. -30. -30. -30. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -7. -6. -6. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. -1. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -29. -33. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -10. -17. -17. -19. -19. -22. -26. -28. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -15. -21. -34. -44. -56. -67. -77. -90.-104.-116.